After a serious analysis of the capabilities of HTML5 I can say the following : Flash video is FAR better than it’s HTML5 version. Really.
It’s smoother, has better quality and runs faster. And people were complaining about flash being a resource hog. Well not entirely true.
As for other things – advertisements in HTML5 are a better option, just like simple animations on the web. It’s a standard that generally will take over eventually. But what Steve Jobs was saying is that it will replace Flash entirely. And that won’t be the case – if you want proof go watch some videos on youtube and vimeo in html5 format and then watch them again in flash. The difference is actually visible even with the images themselves. HTML5 is nowhere near being good. And since youtube hasn’t implemented it yet fully means it’s not ready yet. Because they have enough money to do it if the technology allows it.
So what’s next?
We’ll see a division or if you like a “hole” between the two platforms, growing bigger and bigger over time. And since apple is the only company not accepting flash it’ll end up having them shut off from the “decent video streaming”. The rest can be done in HTML5 and it probably will be in time. Even Adobe has some tools to make HTML5 sites that will be released in CS5. It’s all for us to wait and see, but my prediction is that both the technologies will stay with us for much longer, unless the HTML5 video will be improved, because currently it just sucks.